Macroactuarial Forecasts

This chapter examines three “macroactuarial” models of Kazakhstan critical to informing policymakers’ decisions. Naturally, the initial model—Mitchell Wiener’s PENMODEL, constructed in 1997 under a USAID contract—was created hurriedly, with little time to explore available data or even to determine the sorts of data that existed. Two years later, a larger, primarily Kazakhstani, team modified the World Bank’s PROST model to create a more sophisticated picture.1 Termed KAZAK1 (Kazakhstan Actuarial model 1), this model was built on an already sophisticated software package and more fully utilized the nation’s considerable information database. While KazAK1 gave analysts a much better picture (and looming pitfalls) of pension options in 1999–2001 than its predecessor, it in turn is primitive in comparison with Dina Urzhumova and Ai-Gul Seitenova’s KAZAK2 model.