Modelling and control of market penetration

In this paper different approaches to the modelling of the market penetration of new goods, processes and brands are briefly discussed. A warning is given on the use of purely descriptive models based on the common features (the s- shaped market penetration curve) of phenomena that widely differ in causes and possible controls; diffusion and capacity expansion models are compared to this end. An optimal pricing exercise is finally presented to clarify the importance of interpretative and control models in technological forecasting problems.