Modeling the number of children born alive in every woman of childbearing age in East Java Province using ordinal logistic regression analysis

Birth is one of the factors that influence the rate of population growth, one of the birth measures is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). TFR is the average number of children born to a woman during her childbearing age can be measured using the number of children born alive. East Java Province is one of the provinces where the TFR value has reached the government’s target, so that it is necessary to analyze the factors that are suspected to affect the number of children born alive in East Java Province. In this study using SDKI 2017 data in East Java Province with a sample of 2737 Women of Childbearing Age (WCA) and factors that are thought to affect the number of children born alive are the mother’s age, the area of residence, the last education, the status of work, the quantile of wealth, the number of children died, the number of ideal children, the age of the first sexual relationship, the use of contraception tools, the first age of pregnancy, and the failure of pregnancy. Because of the response variable used an ordinal scale so that one of the statistical methods suitable for use is the method of ordinal logistic regression. The results of the analysis obtained that the most WCA in East Java has two children with factors that affect are the area of residence, and the number of children died.