A stochastic scenario-based vaccination planning model

In response to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination programmes have emerged as the top priority for many countries over the world. In spite of various strategic measures in accelerating vaccination, the implementation of vaccination planning is greatly driven by the vaccine supply and demand which are uncertain (stochastic). Thus, a properly-developed vaccination planning model is essentially needed to carry out the vaccination programme so that the residents can get vaccinated as soon as possible. Correspondingly, this paper aims to integrate both aspects of stochastic vaccine supply and demand in vaccination planning. Besides, the set-up of numerous types of operational vaccination centres, with varying capacities, would be determined appropriately under uncertainties. By analyzing an illustrative case study, the results revealed that stochastic supply and demand would highly affect the vaccination planning. In particular, the total vaccination demand met by the vaccine supply could reach up to 115% in relation to the initial targeted level. In average, the vaccination programme would require 711 additional vaccination centres (which comprises mobile, small, semi-mega and mega centres) throughout the planning horizon. This would result in a total of 36,710,900 vaccinations within 24 weeks. Concisely, it is anticipated that the developed study is advantageous to assist the relevant authorities to implement the vaccination planning appropriately in achieving herd immunity rapidly.