Transition pathways for a sustainable low-carbon energy system in Thailand

As a non-Annex I country, Thailand has pledged its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030 and by up to 25% with adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources, and capacity building support. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how these targets could possibly be met, as far as energy-related CO2 emissions are concerned, and to propose alternative pathways for fast transition to a low-carbon and cleaner energy system along with its technology and research requirements. The study approach is based on the 6th Edition of APEC Energy Outlook for 2040 and the energy-related CO2 emissions scenarios developed at the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. It is found that Thailand's voluntary INDC target on energy-related emissions could be achieved by a combination of energy efficiency improvement efforts and deployment of renewable energy in line with their respective official plans. The higher conditional INDC target of 25% could also be reached by a natural gas dominated power sector, in addition to energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment measures, at the risk of worsening its energy security and increased cost of electricity. An alternative scenario that would not only meet the conditional INDC target but also lead to a fast transition towards a low-carbon and cleaner energy system by 2040 is possible. The scenario is based on a balanced approach, taking into account energy security, cost, and environment. It requires ambitious energy efficiency improvement (particularly in the transport sector) and renewable energy targets, and significant de-carbonization of the power sector. The scenario will see Thailand's energy-related CO2 emissions peaking around 2030 and a 45% cut below the projected BAU level in 2040. The technologies and research required to support the transition have also been identified for the power, transport, commercial buildings, and industry sectors.