Future scenarios of land-use-cover effects on pollination supply and demand in São Paulo State, Brazil

Rapid land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) have led to habitat loss and fragmentation in the natural forest areas, which are mainly due to the intense and rapid expansion of urban areas and intense agricultural management. These processes are strongly threatening biodiversity maintenance and the ecosystem services provided by them. Among the ecosystem services under threat, pollination has been widely studied since this service is essential to promote food production and, therefore, human well-being. In a scenario of increasing LULCC it is crucial to understand the interplay between these changes, pollination demand by insect-dependent crops and pollinator availability to ensure these ecosystem services meet the increased demand for food production. In this study, we developed a conceptual model to disentangle the relationships between human-nature, especially LULCC, and its consequences, to the delivery of pollination service. We also presented a case study in the Brazilian São Paulo state, where we modeled the effects of predicted LULCC associated to agriculture expansion between the years 2012 and 2030 on pollinator demand by crops and pollinator supply, for fourteen economically important crops. Additionally, we systematized an expert-based Ecosystem Service matrix to estimate the influences of LULCC on the provision of pollination. Our results showed that by 2030, the demand for pollination will increase by 40% on average, while pollinator supply, estimated using suitability values for the different land-use/cover classes, will show, on average, a 3% decrease. Our results highlight the importance of considering the dialogue among stakeholders, governments, institutions, and scientists to find alternatives and strategies to promote pollinator-friendly practices and safeguard the provision of pollination services in a future under LULCC. Resumo: As aceleradas mudanças de uso e cobertura do solo levaram à perda e fragmentação de habitat das florestas naturais, principalmente devido a uma intensa e rápida expansão de áreas urbanas e ao intensivo manejo agrícola. Esses processos ameaçam fortemente a manutenção da biodiversidade e os serviços ecossistêmicos associados. Entre os serviços ecossistêmicos ameaçados, a polinização tem sido amplamente estudada, pois se trata de um serviço essencial para a produção de alimentos e, consequentemente, para o bem-estar humano. Em um cenário de crescentes mudanças no uso e cobertura do solo, é crucial entender a interaç