Spatial correlation of dengue with socioeconomic status and land temperature in northwest Mexico

Abstract Objective. To characterize the geographic distribution of dengue and to evaluate the spatial autocorrelation with social and climatic determinants at the census-tract level in two medium sized cities in northwestern Mexico. Methods. In this work we apply spatial analysis ecological tools, such as the Moran’s Index and the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) method, to examine global and local spatial correlation between incidence of dengue, with socioeconomic and climatic factors at the census tract-level. For the analysis of the spatial clustering, the Getis-Ord method was used to find statistically significant hot spots in each city. Results. Overall, a global spatial autocorrelation could not be identified, although local clusters of a high dengue incidence, soil surface temperature ≤ 31 °C and high degree of social marginalization coincide. Discussion. We found that at the census-tract level in urban settings, socially disadvantaged populations showed higher clusters of dengue when compared to areas with better socioeconomic conditions. A similar spatial pattern was observed in the two study sites, when considering public health conditions and its aggregation with physical attributes using spatial analysis techniques, supporting the application of this technique for a better understanding about the dengue distribution in urban areas.