The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions: results for Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru

We extend the EPIC model of the World Health Organization (WHO) and apply it to analyze the macroeconomic impact of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions in Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru. The EPIC model quantifies the impact of NCDs and mental health conditions on aggregate output solely through the effect of chronic conditions on labor supply due to mortality. In contrast, the expanded EPIC-H Plus framework also incorporates reductions in effective labor supply due to morbidity and negative effects of health expenditure on output via the diversion of productive savings and reduced capital accumulation. We apply this methodology to Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru and estimate gross domestic product (GDP) output lost due to four leading NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes) and mental health conditions in these countries from 2015 to 2030. We also estimate losses from all NCDs and mental health conditions combined. Overall, our results show total losses associated with all NCDs and mental health conditions over the period 2015-2030 of US$ 81.96 billion (2015 US$) for Costa Rica, US$ 18.45 billion for Jamaica, and US$ 477.33 billion for Peru. Moderate variation exists in the magnitude of the burdens of diseases for the three countries. In Costa Rica and Peru, respiratory disease and mental health conditions are two leading contributors to lost output, while in Jamaica, cardiovascular disease alone accounts for 20.8% of the total loss, followed by cancer. These results indicate that the economic impact of NCDs and mental health conditions is substantial and that interventions to reduce the prevalence of chronic conditions in countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to be highly cost-beneficial.