The Standard World of 2005: A Surprise-Free Scenario

A standard world scenario is one which is surprise free in the sense of offering neither revolutionary breakthrough nor catastrophe, but a continuation of presently foreseeable trends. The present work explores the meaning for the hospitality industry of one such scenario. Economic series such as gross national product and disposable personal income are projected on the basis of work force changes as well as on productivity and investment. A more diverse and, on average, older work force is foreseen. The impact of work force trends on hospitality's customer base are then interpreted. Next, the outlook for employment in hospitality is estimated by sector and position level. Finally, alternative optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are analyzed.