The prediction of minewater inflows

Uncertainties in the forecasting of the volume of groundwater likely to enter underground workings present difficulties for mine management in planning and costing the water-related activities of mining. This paper descriptionbes a technique that was developed to assess future inflows into a gold mine in the Orange Free State. The approach employed was based on the interactive operation of two separate computer models: a regional-flow model and an inflow model. As a first stage, a regional finite-element model of groundwater flow was set up and calibrated. Predictive runs were made to establish the influence of mining on the water levels from base-line conditions. This step was necessary since observations of the regional water levels were sparse. The predicted water levels were transferred to the inflow model, and the future flowrates were calculated. Both models were calibrated by trial and error until a satisfactory match was obtained between historical records and the values predicted by modelling. In this way, an improved monitoring system to record regional water levels and pressure heads within a mine was established. By the use of information, the initial model predictions can be refined as mining progresses. The models used are based on a non-linear relationship between the area mined and the inflows. A phased behaviour in the rates of inflow increase was noted. In conclusion, the modelling approach can provide mine management with guidelines for dewatering requirements. The confidence levels depend upon the records that have been collected during the mine's history.