A framework to estimate national biofuel potential by siting production facilities: a case study for canola sustainable aviation fuel in Canada

International Civil Aviation Organization member states need to develop national strategies for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. In this work, we developed a framework to estimate the national SAF potential and applied it to a case study for canola SAF in Canada. Specifically, we answered (i) how many SAF plants can be constructed and what are their maximum name-plate capacities? (ii) which geographic locations can economically support a SAF plant? (iii) what could be the average life cycle GHG emissions of SAF supplied to major airports? Our study developed an improved framework for estimating the SAF potential for a region by incorporating detailed site selection criteria for identifying optimal locations. We found that 15.2 million metric tonnes (MT) of potentially available canola can supply about 1-1.8 billion litres of SAF by 2030 (12-21% of Canada's 2019 jet fuel consumption) across 7-11 optimal sites, after accounting for infrastructure and accepted industry/financing guidelines on feedstock utilization. Up to 20% of this potential is lost if there is a lack of coordination and plants are sited sequentially based on profitability instead of maximizing feedstock utilization. The life cycle-GHG emissions of the SAF produced in the optimal sites ranged between 20-58 g CO 2 e per MJ, depending on the local farming practices and legacy land use & land management changes. Increasing the supply chain transportation connectivity and managing feedstock competition could provide access to more canola for SAF production; however, other pathways will also be required to meet the growing SAF demand in Canada. Canola-derived SAF can meet about 20% of the jet fuel consumption in Canada but requires incentives to spur domestic production. Increasing transportation connectivity can increase canola accessibility and reduce supply chain risk.