Bridging capital discipline and energy scenarios

Integrated assessment and other macro-scale energy systems models are valuable tools for exploring alternate ways (scenarios) to decarbonize an economy. A shortcoming, however, is that most models assume new mitigation assets are conceived, permitted, financed, built and commissioned overnight. In reality, it takes multiple years to develop assets, a significant fraction of which may be abandoned or shelved because various risks and/or commercial conditions do not support the investment case. New approaches that reflect developers' disciplined approach to capital allocation can improve scenario feasibility and inform the right policies and investments to assure deep decarbonization on-the-ground. Asset developer decision-making is often neglected in energy systems models. We describe a new reverse-engineering method to bridge this gap, informing key policy and investment interventions needed to achieve ambitious net-zero targets.