Predictive assessment as a tool in Dutch maritime heritage management

As a complement to outright protection, archaeological heritage management is more and more concerned with mitigation of adverse effects of all sorts of activities. It applies to maritime heritage no less than to other heritage categories and it applies both to known and to yet unknown archaeological sites. This may be simply said, but it is one of the major challenges of any mitigation strategy: how, can one take into account what one does not know? Moreover, paradoxically, what one does know in detail, has, at least partially been destroyed by research and excavation. In order to address these challenges one can choose a predictive approach. Predictive modelling has it risks, but it also has its assets in situations where far-reaching decisions have to be taken based on meagre evidence. Under those circumstances, predictive models can be a useful tool. To the background of such considerations, a predictive archaeological map has been developed for archaeological heritage management in the Netherlands, by the National Service for Archaeological Heritage, ROB. Although the map renders both terrestrial and maritime archaeological values, this paper is concerned with the maritime aspects only.