Unsupervised machine learning identifies predictive progression markers of IPF

Objectives To identify and evaluate predictive lung imaging markers and their pathways of change during progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) from sequential data of an IPF cohort. To test if these imaging markers predict outcome. Methods We studied radiological disease progression in 76 patients with IPF, including overall 190 computed tomography (CT) examinations of the chest. An algorithm identified candidates for imaging patterns marking progression by computationally clustering visual CT features. A classification algorithm selected clusters associated with radiological disease progression by testing their value for recognizing the temporal sequence of examinations. This resulted in radiological disease progression signatures, and pathways of lung tissue change accompanying progression observed across the cohort. Finally, we tested if the dynamics of marker patterns predict outcome, and performed an external validation study on a cohort from a different center. Results Progression marker patterns were identified and exhibited high stability in a repeatability experiment with 20 random sub-cohorts of the overall cohort. The 4 top-ranked progression markers were consistently selected as most informative for progression across all random sub-cohorts. After spatial image registration, local tracking of lung pattern transitions revealed a network of tissue transition pathways from healthy to a sequence of disease tissues. The progression markers were predictive for outcome, and the model achieved comparable results on a replication cohort. Conclusions Unsupervised learning can identify radiological disease progression markers that predict outcome. Local tracking of pattern transitions reveals pathways of radiological disease progression from healthy lung tissue through a sequence of diseased tissue types. Key Points • Unsupervised learning can identify radiological disease progression markers that predict outcome in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis . • Local tracking of pattern transitions reveals pathways of radiological disease progression from healthy lung tissue through a sequence of diseased tissue types . • The progression markers achieved comparable results on a replication cohort .