Predictors of Successful Medical Management With Methotrexate in Unruptured Tubal Ectopic Pregnancy

Introduction Medical treatment with methotrexate (MTX) is a safe and effective alternative to surgery in carefully selected cases of ectopic pregnancies diagnosed early prior to rupture. Aim To determine the optimal pre-treatment levels of beta human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and its changing trends most likely to have a successful outcome with medical management. Material and methods A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary teaching hospital from December 2018 to May 2021. "Single-dose" MTX regime was used for medical management of ectopic pregnancy in patients fulfilling the selection criteria. The β-hCG levels were recorded at baseline and on day 4 and day 7 of MTX injection. Thereafter, at weekly intervals till complete resolution or surgical intervention due to failure of medical management. In addition, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for a pre-treatment β-hCG cut-off value and changing trends in post-treatment β- hCG levels most likely to have a successful outcome with MTX treatment were determined. Results Fifty patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included in the study, with successful medical management in 33 (66%). The mean pre-treatment β-hCG levels in women with successful medical management were 3270.97 (+/- 901) compared to 5249.17 (+/-808.02) for those with treatment failure (p=0.00001). The mean β-hCG level in the failed treatment group was significantly higher on day 4 than the pre-treatment levels (6742.56 +/- 572 vs. 5249.17+/- 808.02; p