How will COVID-19 impact Australia's future population? A scenario approach

The impact of COVID-19 has been massive and unprecedented, affecting almost every aspect of our daily lives. This paper attempts to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the future size, composition and distribution of Australia's population by projecting a range of scenarios. Drawing on the academic literature, historical data and informed by expert judgement, four scenarios representing possible future courses of economic and demographic recovery are formulated. Results suggest that Australia's population could be 6 per cent lower by 2040 in a Longer scenario than in the No Pandemic scenario, primarily due to a huge reduction in international migration. Impacts on population ageing will be less severe, leading to a one percentage point increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over by 2040. Differential impacts will be felt across Australian States and Territories, with the biggest absolute and relative reductions in growth occurring in the most populous states, Victoria and New South Wales. Given the ongoing nature of the crisis at the time of writing, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the plausibility of the proposed scenarios. Ongoing monitoring of the demographic impacts of COVID-19 are important to ensure appropriate planning and recovery in the years ahead. •The Australian population will be up to 6 per cent smaller in 2040 than in would have been in the absence of COVID-19.•This is a deficit of 1.9 million people caused by 860,000 fewer births and over 1 million fewer immigrants.•Even with a re-opening of international borders by mid-2022, Australia will be short of 462,000 people by 2040.•Lower population growth in all states and territories but the impact wille the greatest in New South Wales and Victoria.•Potential implications for tax revenue distribution and apportionment of seats in the Australian House of Representatives.