Predicting post-radiation genitourinary hospital admissions in patients with localised prostate cancer

Purpose The risk of treatment-related toxicity is important for patients with localised prostate cancer to consider when deciding between treatment options. We developed a model to predict hospitalisation for radiation-induced genitourinary toxicity based on patient characteristics. Methods The prospective South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes registry was used to identify men with localised prostate cancer who underwent curative intent external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) between 1998 and 2019. Multivariable Cox proportional regression was performed. Model discrimination, calibration, internal validation and utility were assessed using C-statistics and area under ROC, calibration plots, bootstrapping, and decision curve analysis, respectively. Results There were 3,243 patients treated with EBRT included, of which 644 (20%) patients had a treated-related admission. In multivariable analysis, diabetes (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.13–1.60, p