Percentage Gleason pattern 4 and PI-RADS score predict upgrading in biopsy Grade Group 2 prostate cancer patients without cribriform pattern

Purpose To identify parameters to predict upgrading in biopsy Grade Group (GG) 2 prostate cancer patients without cribriform and intraductal carcinoma (CR/IDC) on biopsy. Methods Preoperative biopsies from 657 men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer were reviewed for GG, presence of CR/IDC, percentage Gleason pattern 4, and tumor length. In men with biopsy GG2 without CR/IDC ( n = 196), clinicopathologic features were compared between those with GG1 or GG2 without CR/IDC on RP (GG ≤ 2−) and those with GG2 with CR/IDC or any GG > 2 (GG ≥ 2+). Logistic regression analysis was used to predict upgrading in the biopsy cohort. Results In total 283 men had biopsy GG2 of whom 87 (30.7%) had CR/IDC and 196 (69.3%) did not. CR/IDC status in matched biopsy and RP specimens was concordant in 179 (63.3%) and discordant in 79 (27.9%) cases (sensitivity 45.1%; specificity 92.6%). Of 196 biopsy GG2 men without CR/IDC, 106 (54.1%) had GG ≥ 2+ on RP. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR): 1.85, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.09–3.20; p = 0.025], percentage Gleason pattern 4 (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.17–2.07; p = 0.003), PI-RADS 5 lesion (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.03–4.70; p = 0.045) and clinical stage T3 (OR 3.60; 95% CI 1.08–14.50; p = 0.049) were independent parameters to predict upgrading to GG ≥ 2+ on RP in these men. Conclusions Age, clinical stage T3, percentage Gleason pattern 4 and presence of PI-RADS 5 lesions are independent predictors for upgrading in men with biopsy GG2 without CR/IDC. These findings allow for improved clinical decision-making on surveillance eligibility in intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients.