The Long-Term effects of COVID-19 on travel behavior in the United States: A panel study on work from home, mode choice, online shopping, and air travel

•The impacts of Covid-19 on activity-travel behavior from the pre- to post-pandemic.•A national-wide panel survey including the data of 2973 respondents in the U.S.•Substantial changes in work from home, travel mode, e-shopping, and air travel.•Higher car dependency and major transit ridership loss are expected in the future.•New generated trips and different traffic patterns are expected in the future. A critical challenge facing transportation planners is to identify the type and the extent of changes in people’s activity-travel behavior in the post-Covid-19 pandemic world. In this study, we investigate the travel behavior evolution by analyzing a longitudinal two-wave panel survey data conducted in the United States from April 2020 to May 2021. Encompassing nearly 3,000 respondents across different states, we explored the effects of the pandemic on four major categories of work from home, travel mode choice, online shopping, and air travel. We utilized descriptive and econometric measures, including random effects ordered probit models, to shed light on the pandemic-induced changes and the underlying factors affecting the future of mobility in the post-pandemic world. Upon concrete evidence, our findings substantiate significant observed (i.e., during the pandemic) and expected (i.e., after the pandemic) changes in people’s habits and preferences. According to our results, 48% of the respondents anticipate having the option to WFH after the pandemic, which indicates an approximately 30% increase compared to the pre-pandemic period. In the post-pandemic period, auto and transit commuters are expected to be 9% and 31% less than pre-pandemic, respectively. A considerable rise in hybrid work and grocery online shopping is expected. Moreover, 41% of pre-covid business travelers expect to have fewer flights (after the pandemic) while only 8% anticipate more, compared to the pre-pandemic.