Association of Genetically Predicted Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 with Heart Failure: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Elevated fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) has been consistently associated with heart failure, particularly heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, among patients with CKD and in the general population. FGF23 may directly induce cardiac remodeling and heart failure. However, biases affecting observational studies impede robust causal inferences. Mendelian randomization leverages genetic determinants of a risk factor to examine causality. We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization to assess causal associations between FGF23 and heart failure. Genetic instruments were genome-wide significant genetic variants associated with FGF23, including variants near , , , and We analyzed data from the Heart Failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic Targets and BioVU biobanks to examine associations of the four variants with overall heart failure, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, and heart failure with reduced and mid-range ejection fraction. We developed an eGFR polygenic risk score using summary statistics from the Chronic Kidney Disease Genetics Consortium (CKDGen) genome-wide association study of eGFR in >1 million individuals and performed stratified analyses across eGFR polygenic risk score strata. Genetically determined FGF23 was not associated with overall heart failure in the Heart Failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic Targets consortium (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.89 to 1.42 per unit higher genetically predicted log FGF23) and the full BioVU sample (odds ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 1.84). In stratified analyses in BioVU, higher FGF23 was associated with overall heart failure (odds ratio, 3.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.38 to 6.91) among individuals with low eGFR-polygenic risk score (