Proportion of Incident Genital Human Papillomavirus Detections not Attributable to Transmission and Potentially Attributable to Latent Infections: Implications for Cervical Cancer Screening

Abstract Background Infections with human papillomaviruses (HPVs) may enter a latent state, and eventually become reactivated following loss of immune control. It is unclear what proportion of incident HPV detections are reactivations of previous latent infections vs new transmissions. Methods The HPV Infection and Transmission among Couples through Heterosexual activity (HITCH) cohort study prospectively followed young newly formed heterosexual partners recruited between 2005 and 2011 in Montréal, Canada. We calculated the fraction of incident HPV detections nonattributable to sexual transmission risk factors with a Bayesian Markov model. Results are the median (2.5th-97.5th percentiles) of the estimated posterior distribution. Results A total of 544 type-specific incident HPV detection events occurred in 849 participants; 33% of incident HPV detections occurred in participants whose HITCH partners were negative for that HPV type and who reported no other sex partners over follow-up. We estimate that 43% (38%–48%) of all incident HPV detections in this population were not attributable to recent sexual transmission and might be potentially reactivation of latent infections. Conclusions A positive HPV test result in many cases may be a reactivated past infection, rather than a new infection from recent sexual behaviors or partner infidelity. The potential for reactivation of latent infections in previously HPV-negative women should be considered in the context of cervical cancer screening. We estimate that 43% of incident human papillomavirus detections are unattributable to recent sexual transmission and might be reactivation of latent past infections. The potential for reactivation of past infections should be considered in the context of cervical cancer screening.