Different human papillomavirus types share early natural history transitions in immunocompetent women

Necessary stages of cervical carcinogenesis include acquisition of a carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) type, persistence associated with the development of precancerous lesions, and invasion. Using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste HPV Natural History Study (NHS), the ASCUS‐LSIL Triage Study (ALTS) and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial (CVT), we compared the early natural history of HPV types to inform transition probabilities for health decision models. We excluded women with evidence of high‐grade cervical abnormalities at any point during follow‐up and restricted the analysis to incident infections in all women and prevalent infections in young women (aged