The impact of individual variation on abrupt collapses in mutualistic networks

Individual variation is central to species involved in complex interactions with others in an ecological system. Such ecological systems could exhibit tipping points in response to changes in the environment, consequently leading to abrupt transitions to alternative, often less desirable states. However, little is known about how individual trait variation could influence the timing and occurrence of abrupt transitions. Using 101 empirical mutualistic networks, I model the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of such networks in response to gradual changes in strength of co‐evolutionary interactions. Results indicated that individual variation facilitates the timing of transition in such networks, albeit slightly. In addition, individual variation significantly increases the occurrence of large abrupt transitions. Furthermore, topological network features also positively influence the occurrence of such abrupt transitions. These findings argue for understanding tipping points using an eco‐evolutionary perspective to better forecast abrupt transitions in ecological systems. This work shows that individual variation, size of mutualistic networks and nestedness substantially increases the chances of abrupt transition as changes in the environment occur gradually.