Stratification Tools for Disease‐Modifying Trials in Prodromal Synucleinopathy

ABSTRACT Background Dopamine transporter single photon‐emission computed tomography (DAT‐SPECT) is the strongest risk factor for phenoconversion in patients with idiopathic rapid eye movement (REM)‐sleep behavior disorder (iRBD). However, it might be used as a second‐line stratification tool in clinical trials, because it is expensive and mini‐invasive. Objective Aim of the study is to investigate whether other cost‐effective and non‐invasive biomarkers may be proposed as first‐line stratification tools. Methods Forty‐seven consecutive iRBD patients (68.53 ± 7.16 years, 40 males) underwent baseline clinical and neuropsychological assessment, olfaction test, resting electroencephalogram (EEG), and DAT‐SPECT. All patients underwent 6 month‐based clinical follow‐up to investigate the emergence of parkinsonism and/or dementia. Survival analysis and Cox regression were used to estimate conversion risk. Results Seventeen patients developed an overt synucleinopathy (eight Parkinsonism and nine dementia) 32.8 ± 22 months after diagnosis. The strongest risk factors were putamen specific to non‐displaceable binding ratio (SBR) (hazard ratio [HR], 7.3), attention/working memory cognitive function (NPS‐AT/WM) (HR, 5.9), EEG occipital mean frequency (HR, 2.7) and clinical motor assessment (HR, 2.3). On multivariate Cox‐regression analysis, only putamen SBR and NPS‐AT/WM significantly contributed to the model (HR, 6.2, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9–19.8). At post‐hoc analysis, the trail‐making test B (TMT‐B) was the single most efficient first‐line stratification tool that allowed to reduce the number of eligible subjects to 76.6% (sensitivity 1, specificity 0.37). Combining TMT‐B and DAT‐SPECT further reduced the sample to 66% (sensitivity 0.88, specificity 0.47). Conclusion The TMT‐B seems to be a cost‐effective and efficient first‐line screening tool, to be used to select patients that deserve DAT‐SPECT as second‐line screening tool for disease‐modifying clinical trials. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society