Evolution of European light-duty vehicle CO2 emissions based on recent certification datasets

A new vehicle testing procedure (WLTP - Worldwide Light duty vehicle Test Procedure) was introduced in the European Union (EU) in 2017. In order to examine its actual impact on CO2 emissions for different vehicle technologies and categories, this study analysed data from vehicles certified and registered in the EU in 2019 and 2020. It was found that in average, for all vehicles sold in 2020, the increase in CO2 emissions due to the intoduction of the WLTP was 21% for passenger cars and 27% for vans. Also that diesel vehicles are impacted more than gasoline ones and that the impact on conventional hybrid vehicles is 27% and plug-in hybrid vehicles between 0% (in 2020) and 11% (in 2019). Models employed revealed that the increase in CO2 is mainly due to the higher test masses and more realistic road load coefficients of WLTP that result in higher cycle energy demands. Moreover, results confirmed that the impact of the WLTP's introduction is in line, both in terms of absolute increase and variability, with model-based predictions performed before fleet-wide data were made available.