Machine learning applied to ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: a new tool to diagnose autonomic failure?

Background Autonomic failure (AF) complicates Parkinson’s disease (PD) in one-third of cases, resulting in complex blood pressure (BP) abnormalities. While autonomic testing represents the diagnostic gold standard for AF, accessibility to this examination remains limited to a few tertiary referral centers. Objective The present study sought to investigate the accuracy of a machine learning algorithm applied to 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) as a tool to facilitate the diagnosis of AF in patients with PD. Methods Consecutive PD patients naïve to vasoactive medications underwent 24 h-ABPM and autonomic testing. The diagnostic accuracy of a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model exploiting ABPM parameters was compared to autonomic testing (as per a modified version of the Composite Autonomic Symptom Score not including the sudomotor score) in the diagnosis of AF. Results The study population consisted of n = 80 PD patients (33% female) with a mean age of 64 ± 10 years old and disease duration of 6.2 ± 4 years. The prevalence of AF at the autonomic testing was 36%. The LDA model showed 91.3% accuracy (98.0% specificity, 79.3% sensitivity) in predicting AF, significantly higher than any of the ABPM variables considered individually (hypotensive episodes = 82%; reverse dipping = 79%; awakening hypotension = 74%). Conclusion LDA model based on 24-h ABPM parameters can effectively predict AF, allowing greater accessibility to an accurate and easy to administer test for AF. Potential applications range from systematic AF screening to monitoring and treating blood pressure dysregulation caused by PD and other neurodegenerative disorders.