Contagion effects in ASEAN-5 exchange rates during the Covid-19 pandemic

•Rupiah, ringgit and sing-dollar adjusted daily by 6.58%, 1.47% and 2.45% during Covid-19 period.•Heightened volatility in ASEAN-5 exchange rates lasted from Oct 2019 to July 2020.•Indonesia rupiah, the most volatile currency reacted first during this Covid-19.•Malaysia ringgit, Thai baht and Singap...

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Veröffentlicht in:The North American journal of economics and finance 2022-11, Vol.62, p.101707-101707, Article 101707
1. Verfasser: Ain Shahrier, Nur
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:•Rupiah, ringgit and sing-dollar adjusted daily by 6.58%, 1.47% and 2.45% during Covid-19 period.•Heightened volatility in ASEAN-5 exchange rates lasted from Oct 2019 to July 2020.•Indonesia rupiah, the most volatile currency reacted first during this Covid-19.•Malaysia ringgit, Thai baht and Singapore dollar experienced fundamental-based contagion.•Philippine peso insulated itself from contagion shocks. The aim of this study is to examine the pure and fundamentals-based contagion effects in ASEAN-5 exchange rates during Covid-19 period using daily exchange rates from June 2019 to December 2020. We adopt VECM within the structural VAR framework and higher time–frequency wavelet analysis. The VECM findings show that ASEAN-5 exchange rates are cointegrated during this pandemic and should there be any disequilibrium, daily rate of adjustments in the Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar are 6.58%, 1.47% and 2.45% respectively. The wavelet power spectrum implies that Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore experience prolonged high degree of exchange rates volatility, Thailand experiences mild volatility in the short run and high volatility in the long run and only Philippines experiences mild volatility in the short run and no heightened long run volatility. The wavelet coherence shows Indonesian rupiah reacts first to the Covid-19 shock leading to fundamentals- based contagion to Malaysia and Thailand, and temporary pure contagion based on sentimental to Philippines and Singapore. Only the Philippine peso that insulates itself from the long run shocks. These findings are important as it gives insights into the nature of contagion among ASEAN-5 exchange rates due to global shock of Covid-19 and the need for timely intervention to prevent the short run contagion turning into the long run.
ISSN:1062-9408
1879-0860
1062-9408
DOI:10.1016/j.najef.2022.101707