Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is highly transmissible with potential immune escape. We conducted a test-negative case–control study to evaluate mRNA-1273 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and hospitalization with Omicron or Delta. The large, diverse study population included 26,683 SARS-CoV-2 test-positive cases with variants determined by S gene target failure status (16% Delta and 84% Omicron). The two-dose VE against Omicron infection at 14–90 days was 44.0% (95% confidence interval, 35.1–51.6%) but declined quickly. The three-dose VE was 93.7% (92.2–94.9%) and 86.0% (78.1–91.1%) against Delta infection and 71.6% (69.7–73.4%) and 47.4% (40.5–53.5%) against Omicron infection at 14–60 days and >60 days, respectively. The three-dose VE was 29.4% (0.3–50.0%) against Omicron infection in immunocompromised individuals. The three-dose VE against hospitalization with Delta or Omicron was >99% across the entire study population. Our findings demonstrate high, durable three-dose VE against Delta infection but lower effectiveness against Omicron infection, particularly among immunocompromised people. However, three-dose VE of mRNA-1273 was high against hospitalization with Delta and Omicron variants. A test-negative case–control analysis using data from a diverse population in California, USA, demonstrates that vaccine efficacy of a three-dose regimen of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine is reduced against infection with the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in comparison to Delta, but that efficacy against hospitalization remained high for both variants.