Vaccine-Preventable Disease Incidence Based on Clinically, Radiologically, and Etiologically Confirmed Outcomes: Systematic Literature Review and Re-analysis of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Efficacy Trials

Abstract Background Vaccine regulatory decision making is based on vaccine efficacy against etiologically confirmed outcomes, which may underestimate the preventable disease burden. To quantify this underestimation, we compared vaccine-preventable disease incidence (VPDI) of clinically defined outcomes with radiologically/etiologically confirmed outcomes. Methods We performed a systematic review of efficacy trials for several vaccines (1997–2019) and report results for pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Data were extracted for outcomes within a clinical syndrome, organized from most sensitive to most specific. VPDI was determined for each outcome, and VPDI ratios were calculated, with a clinically defined outcome (numerator) and a radiologically/etiologically confirmed outcome (denominator). Results Among 9 studies, we calculated 27 VPDI ratios; 24 had a value >1. Among children, VPDI ratios for clinically defined versus vaccine serotype otitis media were 0.6 (95% CI not calculable), 2.1 (1.5–3.0), and 3.7 (1.0–10.2); the VPDI ratios comparing clinically defined with radiologically confirmed pneumonia ranged from not calculable to 2.7 (1.2–10.4); the VPDI ratio comparing clinically suspected invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) with laboratory-confirmed IPD was 3.8 (95% CI not calculable). Among adults, the ratio comparing clinically defined with radiologically confirmed pneumonia was 1.9 (−6.0 to 9.1) and with vaccine serotype–confirmed pneumonia was 2.9 (.5–7.8). Conclusions While there is substantial uncertainty around individual point estimates, there is a consistent trend in VPDI ratios, most commonly showing under-ascertainment of 1.5- to 4-fold, indicating that use of clinically defined outcomes is likely to provide a more accurate estimate of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine’s public health value. We provide quantitative estimates on the degree to which more specific radiologically or etiologically defined outcomes underestimate pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) prevention of more sensitive clinically defined outcomes; these data should help decision-makers estimate the public health value of PCV immunization programs.