Prevalence of Extensive and Limited Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia and Progression to Dysplasia and Gastric Cancer

Background and Aims Guidelines cite extensive gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) as a bigger risk factor for gastric cancer (GC) than limited GIM and an indication for endoscopic surveillance. Data on progression of extensive GIM to GC in the USA are limited. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and progression rates of extensive GIM in a US cohort. Methods This retrospective study assessed the prevalence of extensive GIM between 1/1/1990 and 8/1/2019 at a large academic medical center. Multivariable regression was used to identify predictors of extensive GIM. Incidence of GC on follow-up was calculated as number of new diagnoses divided by person-years of follow-up. Presence of GIM on subsequent follow-up endoscopy was assessed. Results Of 1256 individuals with GIM, 352 (28%) had extensive GIM and 904 (72%) had limited GIM. On multivariable analysis, older age (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00–1.02) and Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.11–2.16) were predictive of extensive GIM. The annual incidence of GC for GIM overall was 0.09%. There was no difference in progression to GC between extensive or limited GIM (IRR 0, 95% CI 0–2.6), or to advanced lesions overall (IRR 0.37, 95% CI 0.04–1.62). 70% of individuals had persistent GIM on follow-up biopsy, and 22% with limited GIM had extensive GIM on follow-up biopsy. Conclusions 28% of individuals with GIM have the extensive subtype, and are more likely to be older and of Hispanic ethnicity. There was no difference in progression to GC between extensive and limited GIM. Further research is needed to better assess risk of GIM in the US context.