Meteorological factors associated with the timing and abundance of Hymenoscyphus fraxineus spore release

The ascomycete Hymenoscyphus fraxineus has spread across most of the host range of European ash with a high level of mortality, causing important economic, cultural and environmental effects. We present a novel method combining a Monte-Carlo approach with a generalised additive model that confirms the importance of meteorology to the magnitude and timing of H. fraxineus spore emissions. The variability in model selection and the relative degree to which our models are over- or under-fitting the data has been quantified. We find that both the daily magnitude and timing of spore emissions are affected by meteorology during and prior to the spore emission diurnal peak. We found the daily emission magnitude has the strongest associations to weekly average net radiation and leaf moisture before the emission, soil temperature during the day before emission and net radiation during the spore emission. The timing of the daily peak in spore emissions has the strongest associations to net radiation both during spore emission and in the day preceding the emission. The seasonal peak in spore emissions has a near-exponential increase/decrease, and the mean daily emission peak is approximately Gaussian.