Predictors of short- and long-term mortality among acutely admitted older patients: role of inflammation and frailty

Background Frailty, demographic and clinical variables linked to incident diseases (e.g., dehydration, inflammation) contribute to poor outcomes in older patients acutely hospitalized. Their predictivity on short-, intermediate- and long-term mortality in a comprehensive model has been scarcely investigated. Aims To test the performance of a predictive tool considering frailty and inflammation as well as age, sex and impaired hydration status on 1-year mortality in acutely admitted older patients. Methods Retrospective observational study including 529 medical patients (age 84.6 ± 7.3 years). At hospital admission, frailty was assessed by the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) was used to grade systemic inflammation. Serum osmolarity was calculated to assess hydration. Results After adjusting for age, sex, GPS and osmolarity, the severe-risk MPI was a strong predictor for 1-year mortality (OR 4.133; 95% CI 2.273–7.516; p 85 years, male sex, GPS-2 and serum osmolarity > 300 mOsm/L were independent predictors of mortality in the same multivariable model. The MPI alone showed a moderate discrimination power (AUC 0.678; 95% CI 0.628–0.729; p