Risk, uncertainty and ambiguity amid Covid-19: A multi-national analysis of international travel intentions

This study analyses how Covid-19 shapes individuals' international tourism intentions in context of bounded rationality. It provides a novel analysis of risk which is disaggregated into tolerance/aversion of and competence to manage risks across three different aspects: general, domain (tourism) and situational (Covid-19). The impacts of risk are also differentiated from uncertainty and ambiguity. The empirical study is based on large samples (total = 8962) collected from the world's top five tourism source markets: China, USA, Germany, UK and France. Various risk factors show significant predictive powers of individual's intentions to defer international tourism plans amid Covid-19. Uncertainty and ambiguity intolerance is shown to lead to intentions to take holidays relatively sooner rather than delaying the holiday plans. •Covid-19 shapes individuals' international tourism intentions.•Risk is disaggregated into tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risks.•General risk, domain-specific risks and Covid situational risks are differentiated.•Risk and uncertainty/ambiguity intolerance have opposite impacts on travel deferral.