Longitudinal association between adiposity measures and regression of prediabetes/diabetes

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has further increased the importance of reducing obesity and prediabetes/diabetes. We aimed to evaluate the association between adiposity and regression of prediabetes/diabetes. The San Juan Overweight Adults Longitudinal Study (SOALS) included 1351 individuals with overweight/obesity, aged 40–65, free of major cardiovascular diseases and physician diagnosed diabetes. From the 1012 participants with baseline prediabetes/diabetes, 598 who completed the follow-up were included. Over the follow-up, 25% regressed from prediabetes to normoglycemia or from diabetes to prediabetes or normoglycemia. Poisson regression with robust standard error was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) adjusting for major confounders. Higher neck circumference (NC) was associated with regression of prediabetes/diabetes (RR = 0.45 comparing extreme tertiles; 95% CI:0.30–0.66); RR was 0.49 (95% CI:0.34–0.73) for waist circumference (WC) and 0.64 (95% CI:0.44–0.92) for BMI. Significant associations were found using median cut-offs or continuous measures for weight and BMI. Greater reduction in BMI (comparing extreme tertiles) was significantly associated with regression of prediabetes/diabetes (RR = 1.44; 95% CI:1.02–2.02). Continuous measures of change in adiposity (except for NC) were also associated with regression of prediabetes/diabetes for BMI and weight. Participants who reduced BMI (>5%) increased prediabetes/diabetes regression (RR = 1.61; 95% CI:1.15–2.25) compared to those who did not; similarly for weight (RR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.10–2.19). Additional analysis for body fat percentage showing slightly weaker results than BMI/weight further supported our findings. Lower baseline adiposity and higher reduction in adiposity were associated with regression of prediabetes/diabetes among individuals with overweight/obesity. •25% reversed diabetes/pre-diabetes over three years without any assigned interventions.•Weight and BMI reduction are significantly associated with prediabetes/DM reversal.•Neck circumference may be a novel target for diabetes screening and regression.