A Prospective Cohort Study of Biomarkers in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anal Canal (SCCAC) and their Influence on Treatment Outcomes

Background: Although Chemoradiation (CRT) is the curative treatment for SCCAC, many patients present primary resistance. Since it is a rare tumor, response predictors remain unknown. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study to evaluate biomarkers associated with CRT response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). The primary endpoint was response at 6 months (m). Tumor DNA and HPV were analyzed by next-generation sequencing, while KI-67 and PD-L1 by immunohistochemistry in tumor tissue. Results: Seventy-eight patients were recruited between October/2011 and December/2015, and 75 were response evaluable. The median age was 57 years, 65% (n=49) were stage III and 12% (n=9) were HIV positive (HIV+). At 6m, 62.7% (n=47) presented CR. On multivariate analyses, stage II patients were 4.7 more likely to achieve response than stage III (OR, 4.70; 95%CI, 1.36-16.30; p=0.015). HIV+ was associated with a worse response (OR, 5.72; 95%CI, 2.5-13.0; p< 0.001). 5-year PFS and OS rates were 63.3% and 76.4%, respectively, with a median follow up of 66m. On multivariate analyses, older age (HR 1.06, p=0.022, 95%IC 1.01-1.11) and absence of CR at 6m (HR 3.36, p=0.007, 95%IC 1.39-8.09) were associated with inferior OS. The 5-year OS rate was 62.5% in HIV+ group compared to 78% among HIV- pts, although this difference was not statistically significant (p=0.4). PIK3CA, MET and TP53 mutations, HPV, Ki-67 expression, and PD-L1 expression, were not associated with PFS and OS. Conclusions: Clinical stage III and HIV+ were associated with worse response to CRT at 6m. The absence of CR was the main factor associated with poor 5-year OS.