Prior Daily Menthol Smokers More Likely to Quit 2 Years After a Menthol Ban Than Non-menthol Smokers: A Population Cohort Study

The province of Ontario, Canada, banned the use of menthol-flavored tobacco products as of January 1, 2017. This study aims to assess the longer-term impact of a menthol ban on smoking behavior at 2 years, which is unknown. Population cohort study with baseline survey (n = 1821) conducted September-December 2016 and follow-up survey January-August 2019 among current smokers in Ontario (16+) prior to the menthol ban. Poisson regression was used to assess the probability of quitting smoking by pre-ban menthol status, controlling for differences in smoking and demographic characteristics, with multiple imputations used to address missing data. Menthol smokers were more likely to report having quit smoking (12% [daily menthol] and 10% [occasional menthol] vs. 3% [non-menthol]; p < .001) than non-menthol smokers in the 2 years after a menthol ban. After adjustment for smoking and demographic characteristics, daily menthol smokers had higher likelihood of quitting smoking (adjusted relative risk [ARR] 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-3.61) and reported more quit attempts (ARR 1.45; 95% CI 1.15-1.82). Among those who attempted to quit, menthol smoking was not associated with relapse (daily ARR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.07; occasional ARR = 0.99; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.08). However, there was a statistically significant interaction among menthol users who reported using other flavored tobacco products 1 year after the ban (ARR = 0.26 [95% CI: 0.08, 0.90]). The study found increased probability of quitting among daily menthol smokers and more quit attempts among daily and occasional menthol smokers compared with non-menthol smokers in Ontario 2 years after the implementation of a menthol ban. This study examines quitting behavior 2 years after a menthol ban in Ontario, Canada. Those who were daily menthol smokers prior to the ban were more likely to quit smoking and make more quit attempts in the 2 years after the ban. While there was no difference in the likelihood of relapse between menthol and non-menthol smokers among those who attempt to quit, there were indications that pre-ban daily menthol smokers who used other tobacco products after the ban were likely to quit.