Novel and Simple Criteria for Predicting Mortality of Peptic Ulcer Disease

Objective Conventional risk scores of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) are based on many parameters, and their application in clinical practice is therefore limited. The aim of this study was to establish simple and reliable criteria for predicting PUD-associated mortality. Methods A total of 499 patients with PUD were divided into 2 groups: the training cohort (n=333) and the validation cohort (n=166). To minimize selection bias due to missing values, we used imputed datasets generated by the multiple imputation method (training-cohort dataset, n=33,300; validation-cohort dataset, n=16,600). Results In the training-cohort dataset, the heart rate-to-systolic blood pressure ratio (HR/SBP) and serum albumin (s-Alb) level were significant independent predictive factors for mortality according to the multivariate analysis [HR/SBP, odds ratio (OR): 1.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-2.80, p=0.028; s-Alb, OR: 0.23, 95% CI, 0.11-0.51, p