The impact of output volatility on CO2 emissions in Turkey: testing EKC hypothesis with Fourier stationarity test

This study uses the output volatility–augmented environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to determine the dynamic short- and long-term impacts of the volatility of economic growth (VOL) on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach indicate that there is a long-run relationship between CO 2 , per capita real GDP, per capita energy use, and VOL. The coefficients obtained from the ARDL estimation indicate that economic growth and energy use increase CO 2 emissions, while VOL decreases CO 2 emissions in the long run. Moreover, the coefficients obtained from the ARDL error correction model show that VOL decreases CO 2 emissions in the short run, as well. We also find that the EKC is valid in Turkey. This implies for the Turkish case that achieving macro-stability under a “just transition” is key for achieving both economic and environmental benefits from ratifying international agreements such as Paris Agreement and EU Green Deal.