Exploring the effects of PM2.5 and temperature on COVID-19 transmission in Seoul, South Korea

With a recent surge of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19) in South Korea, this study attempts to investigate the effects of environmental conditions such as air pollutants (PM2.5) and meteorological covariate (Temperature) on COVID-19 transmission in Seoul. To account for unobserved heterogeneity in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 across 25 contiguous districts within Seoul, we adopt a full Bayesian hierarchical approach for the generalized linear mixed models. A formal statistical analysis suggests that there exists a positive correlation between a 7-day lagged effect of PM2.5 concentration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, which implies an elevated risk of the infectious disease. Conversely, temperature has shown a negative correlation with the number of COVID-19 cases, leading to reduction in relative risks. In addition, we clarify that the random fluctuation in the relative risks of COVID-19 mainly originates from temporal aspects, whereas no significant evidence of variability in relative risks is observed in terms of spatial alignment of the 25 districts. Nevertheless, this study provides empirical evidence using model-based formal assessments regarding COVID-19 infection risks in 25 districts of Seoul from a different perspective. •The study investigates a disparity of relative risks among 25 districts in Seoul.•There exists a positive correlation between a 7-day-lagged effect of PM2.5 and COVID-19 spread.•The study reveals a negative association between a 7-day-lagged effect of temperature and COVID-19 spread.•We verify that the influence of unobserved heterogeneity mainly stems from temporal dependency.