Macroscopic patterns of interacting contagions are indistinguishable from social reinforcement

From ‘fake news’ to innovative technologies, many contagions spread as complex contagions via a process of social reinforcement, where multiple exposures are distinct from prolonged exposure to a single source 1 . Contrarily, biological agents such as Ebola or measles are typically thought to spread as simple contagions 2 . Here, we demonstrate that these different spreading mechanisms can have indistinguishable population-level dynamics once multiple contagions interact. In the social context, our results highlight the challenge of identifying and quantifying spreading mechanisms, such as social reinforcement 3 , in a world where an innumerable number of ideas, memes and behaviours interact. In the biological context, this parallel allows the use of complex contagions to effectively quantify the non-trivial interactions of infectious diseases. Knowledge of the spreading mechanisms of contagions is important for understanding a range of epidemiological and social problems. A study now shows that so-called simple and complex contagions cannot be told apart if there is more than one simple contagion traversing the population at the same time.