Subgingival microbiome is associated with alveolar bone loss measured 5 years later in postmenopausal women

Background The aim of this study was to quantify the association between subgingival microbiota and periodontal disease progression in older women, for which limited published data exist. Methods A total of 1016 postmenopausal women, aged 53 to 81 years, completed baseline (1997 to 2001) and 5‐year (2002 to 2006) dental exams that included probing depth, clinical attachment level, gingival bleeding, and radiographic alveolar crestal height (ACH). Baseline microbiota were measured in subgingival plaque using 16S rRNA sequencing. Associations between 52 microbiota we previously found statistically significantly associated with clinical periodontal disease at baseline, were examined with disease progression. The traditional Socransky microbiota complexes also were evaluated. Side‐by‐side radiograph comparisons were used to define progression as ≥2 teeth with ≥1 mm ACH loss or ≥1 new tooth loss to periodontitis. The association between baseline centered log(2) ratio transformed microbial relative abundances and 5‐year periodontal disease progression was measured with generalized linear models. Results Of 36 microbiota we previously showed were elevated in moderate/severe disease at baseline, 24 had statistically significantly higher baseline mean relative abundance in progressing compared with non‐progressing women (P