Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes

Germany’s next shutdown—Possible scenarios and outcomes

With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiv...

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Veröffentlicht in:Influenza and other respiratory viruses 2021-05, Vol.15 (3), p.326-330
Hauptverfasser: Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria, Fuhrmann, Jan
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Age
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
epidemic outbreak
Germany - epidemiology
Hospitalization
Humans
Infections
Intensive care
Intensive Care Units
Intervention
mathematical modeling
Mathematical models
Models, Theoretical
non‐pharmaceutical interventions
Opening hours
Ordinary differential equations
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Respiratory diseases
SARS-CoV-2
Short
Shutdowns
Simulation
Viruses
wave breaker
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:With the rapid increase of reported COVID‐19 cases, German policymakers announced a 4‐week “shutdown light” starting on November 2, 2020. Applying mathematical models, possible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak in Germany are simulated. The results indicate that independent of the effectiveness of the current restrictive measures they might not be sufficient to mitigate the outbreak. Repeated shutdown periods or permanently applied measures over the winter could be successful alternatives.
ISSN:1750-2640
1750-2659
DOI:10.1111/irv.12827