Eye Movements Reflect Adaptive Predictions and Predictive Precision

Successful decision-making depends on the ability to form predictions about uncertain future events. Existing evidence suggests predictive representations are not limited to point estimates but also include information about the associated level of predictive uncertainty. Estimates of predictive uncertainty have an important role in governing the rate at which beliefs are updated in response to new observations. It is not yet known, however, whether the same form of uncertainty-modulated learning occurs naturally and spontaneously when there is no task requirement to express predictions explicitly. Here, we used a gaze-based predictive inference paradigm to show that (a) predictive inference manifested in spontaneous gaze dynamics, (b) feedback-driven updating of spontaneous gaze-based predictions reflected adaptation to environmental statistics, and (c) anticipatory gaze variability tracked predictive uncertainty in an event-by-event manner. Our results demonstrate that sophisticated predictive inference can occur spontaneously and that oculomotor behavior can provide a multidimensional readout of internal predictive beliefs.