Differentiating Adolescent Suicide Attempters and Ideators: A Classification Tree Analysis of Risk Behaviors

Although many youth consider suicide, only a subset act on suicidal thoughts and attempt suicide. The objective of this study was to identify patterns of risk factors that differentiate adolescents who experienced suicidal thoughts from those who attempted suicide. This study analyzed data from the 2013, 2015, and 2017 National Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. Classification tree analysis was used to identify combinations of health risk behaviors and demographic factors that improved the identification of past-year suicide attempts among adolescents with past-year suicide ideation or planning (overall n = 7,493). Forty percent of the past-year ideators attempted suicide in the same period. The best-performing tree included three variables and defined four subgroups. Youth characterized by heroin use and past-year physical fights were at a strikingly high risk of being attempters (78%). Youth who had experienced rape were also likely to be attempters (58%), whereas those who had endorsed none of these three variables were relatively less likely to be attempters (29%). Overall, the tree’s classification accuracy was modest (area under the curve = .65). This study advances previous research by identifying notable constellations of risk behaviors that accounted for adolescents’ transition from suicidal ideation to behavior. However, even with many health risk behavior variables, a large sample, and a multidimensional analytic approach, the overall classification of suicide attempters among ideators was limited. Implications for future research are discussed.