A Clinical Prognostic Scoring System for Neurocysticercosis

In patients with neurocysticercosis (NCC), an accurate risk prediction would allow a better therapeutic approach; however, there are currently no tools that can enhance the accuracy of risk prediction. We designed a prognostic scoring system to be used by neurologists and other physicians managing patients with NCC. Using data from clinical records of patients from a third-level national reference center for neurological diseases, we assessed demographic, clinical, and tomographic variables among 293 patients diagnosed with NCC. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to develop a clinical prognostic scoring instrument. Patients with NCC were assessed for neurological impairment at 3 months after diagnosis. Score accuracy was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The primary outcome was the presence of neurological impairment, resulting in disability according to self-report or caregiver reports; this outcome was assessed during follow-up visits at 3 ± 1 months after discharge. The most common symptoms at presentation were headache (67%) and seizure (63%). A six-item (total score from -4 to + 2) prognostic instrument was constructed on the basis of the presence of seizures/headache at presentation, a leukocyte count above 12x 109/dL, the presence of six to ten parasites, subarachnoid localization, and the use of anthelmintic drugs. Among 113 patients with negative scores, 79.6% developed neurological deficits. Among patients with scores of 1 to 2, 64.6% recovered completely, with an overall accuracy of prediction of 74.7% and area under the ROC curve = 0.722 (95% CI, 0.664-0.780, < 0.0001). The clinical prognostic scoring system for NCC described in this study is a new instrument for use in daily clinical practice. It is simple to administer, and it has a prognostic accuracy of 75%. Its use has the potential to improve the quality of care by guiding appropriate decision-making and early management of patients with NCC.