The Natural History of NAFLD, a Community‐Based Study at a Large Health Care Delivery System in the United States

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem. However, the natural history of NAFLD is incomplete. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients identified with NAFLD by diagnosis codes in a large, community‐based health care delivery system. The objectives were (1) to follow patients from initial NAFLD presentation through progression to cirrhosis and/or decompensated cirrhosis to liver cancer, liver transplant, and death for up to 10 years; and (2) to conduct disease progression analysis restricted to patients with NAFLD identified as having diabetes at baseline. A total of 98,164 patients with full NAFLD and 26,488 with diabetes were divided into three baseline prevalent states: (1) no cirrhosis, (2) compensated cirrhosis, and (3) decompensated cirrhosis. In baseline patients without cirrhosis, annual rates of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and death were 0.28%, 0.31%, and 0.63% per year, respectively. With baseline compensated cirrhosis, the annual rates of decompensation and death were 2.4% and 6.7% per year. Finally, in those with decompensated cirrhosis at baseline, the death rate was 8.0% per year. In those without cirrhosis and with cirrhosis at baseline, the rates of liver cancer and death were increased approximately 2‐fold in the diabetic subpopulation compared with the full NAFLD cohort. Age and comorbidities increased with increasing disease severity. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that cirrhosis was strongly associated with death and liver cancer, and that diabetes was associated with a significant increase in the hazard of both liver cancer and death (2.56 [2.04‐3.20] and 1.43 [1.35‐1.52]), respectively. Conclusion: The findings of this community‐based study further our understanding of the natural history of NAFLD and demonstrate that diabetes is a major factor in the progression of this disease.