Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination
Abstract Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally. Methods Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data i...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Journal of infectious diseases 2020-10, Vol.222 (Supplement_7), p.S688-S694 |
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| container_issue | Supplement_7 |
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| container_title | The Journal of infectious diseases |
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| creator | van Boven, Michiel Teirlinck, Anne C Meijer, Adam Hooiveld, Mariëtte van Dorp, Christiaan H Reeves, Rachel M Campbell, Harry van der Hoek, Wim |
| description | Abstract
Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.
Methods
Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.
Results
Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults ( |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1093/infdis/jiaa424 |
| format | Article |
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Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.
Methods
Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.
Results
Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20–64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.
Conclusions
Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0–5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-1899</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-6613</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa424</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32821916</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>US: Oxford University Press</publisher><subject>Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Children ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Immunity ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infants ; Infections ; Middle Aged ; Netherlands ; Pediatrics ; Respiratory syncytial virus ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - immunology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - transmission ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology ; Respiratory tract infection ; Supplement ; Vaccination ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>The Journal of infectious diseases, 2020-10, Vol.222 (Supplement_7), p.S688-S694</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. 2020</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c448t-168bed7aab99feb30d9f97917f29d41d73fec2a0cd385d594fd1c6ac7a45bcc13</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c448t-168bed7aab99feb30d9f97917f29d41d73fec2a0cd385d594fd1c6ac7a45bcc13</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-6169-6262</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1578,27901,27902</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32821916$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>van Boven, Michiel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Teirlinck, Anne C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meijer, Adam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hooiveld, Mariëtte</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Dorp, Christiaan H</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reeves, Rachel M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Campbell, Harry</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Hoek, Wim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>RESCEU Investigators</creatorcontrib><title>Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination</title><title>The Journal of infectious diseases</title><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><description>Abstract
Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.
Methods
Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.
Results
Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20–64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.
Conclusions
Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0–5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.</description><subject>Adolescent</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Child</subject><subject>Child, Preschool</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Hospitalization</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Immunity</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Infant</subject><subject>Infants</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Netherlands</subject><subject>Pediatrics</subject><subject>Respiratory syncytial virus</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - immunology</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - transmission</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines</subject><subject>Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology</subject><subject>Respiratory tract infection</subject><subject>Supplement</subject><subject>Vaccination</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>0022-1899</issn><issn>1537-6613</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkU1PFTEUhhsjkSu6dWmauNHFQDvtfHRjYggqCUSiyLY50w_ozUw7tB2Tu_WXW7gXom5YddHnPO15X4TeUHJIiWBHzlvt0tHaAfCaP0Mr2rCualvKnqMVIXVd0V6IffQypTUhhLO2e4H2Wd3XVNB2hX6fpOwmyM5f48sIPk0uJRc8voAIk8kmJmxDxN9Nml2EHOIG_9h4tckORnzl4pIweI0votFO3WvyjcGn0wwq42DxORSHL-w9VSDI0Sl8BUo5X94N_hXaszAm83p3HqCfn08uj79WZ9--nB5_OqsU532uaNsPRncAgxDWDIxoYUUnaGdroTnVHbNG1UCUZn2jG8GtpqoF1QFvBqUoO0Aft955GSajlfE5wijnWPaPGxnAyX9vvLuR1-GX7LqGlliL4P1OEMPtYlKWJSxlxhG8CUuSdUmXCU54U9B3_6HrsNzFUCjRNDUrPZBCHW4pFUNK0djHz1Ai7-qV23rlrt4y8PbvFR7xhz4L8GELhGV-SvYHzUm1uw</recordid><startdate>20201007</startdate><enddate>20201007</enddate><creator>van Boven, Michiel</creator><creator>Teirlinck, Anne C</creator><creator>Meijer, Adam</creator><creator>Hooiveld, Mariëtte</creator><creator>van Dorp, Christiaan H</creator><creator>Reeves, Rachel M</creator><creator>Campbell, Harry</creator><creator>van der Hoek, Wim</creator><general>Oxford University Press</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6169-6262</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20201007</creationdate><title>Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination</title><author>van Boven, Michiel ; Teirlinck, Anne C ; Meijer, Adam ; Hooiveld, Mariëtte ; van Dorp, Christiaan H ; Reeves, Rachel M ; Campbell, Harry ; van der Hoek, Wim</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c448t-168bed7aab99feb30d9f97917f29d41d73fec2a0cd385d594fd1c6ac7a45bcc13</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Adolescent</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Child</topic><topic>Child, Preschool</topic><topic>Children</topic><topic>Hospitalization</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Immunity</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Infant</topic><topic>Infants</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Netherlands</topic><topic>Pediatrics</topic><topic>Respiratory syncytial virus</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - immunology</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - transmission</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines</topic><topic>Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology</topic><topic>Respiratory tract infection</topic><topic>Supplement</topic><topic>Vaccination</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>van Boven, Michiel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Teirlinck, Anne C</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Meijer, Adam</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hooiveld, Mariëtte</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Dorp, Christiaan H</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reeves, Rachel M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Campbell, Harry</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Hoek, Wim</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>RESCEU Investigators</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><jtitle>The Journal of infectious diseases</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>van Boven, Michiel</au><au>Teirlinck, Anne C</au><au>Meijer, Adam</au><au>Hooiveld, Mariëtte</au><au>van Dorp, Christiaan H</au><au>Reeves, Rachel M</au><au>Campbell, Harry</au><au>van der Hoek, Wim</au><aucorp>RESCEU Investigators</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination</atitle><jtitle>The Journal of infectious diseases</jtitle><addtitle>J Infect Dis</addtitle><date>2020-10-07</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>222</volume><issue>Supplement_7</issue><spage>S688</spage><epage>S694</epage><pages>S688-S694</pages><issn>0022-1899</issn><eissn>1537-6613</eissn><abstract>Abstract
Background
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.
Methods
Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.
Results
Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20–64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.
Conclusions
Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0–5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.</abstract><cop>US</cop><pub>Oxford University Press</pub><pmid>32821916</pmid><doi>10.1093/infdis/jiaa424</doi><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6169-6262</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | Oxford University Press Journals All Titles (1996-Current); MEDLINE; Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Adolescent Adult Aged Child Child, Preschool Children Hospitalization Humans Immunity Incidence Infant Infants Infections Middle Aged Netherlands Pediatrics Respiratory syncytial virus Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - immunology Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - prevention & control Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - transmission Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - immunology Respiratory tract infection Supplement Vaccination Young Adult |
| title | Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination |
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