Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination

Abstract Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally. Methods Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012–2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination. Results Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (