Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate

The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an ‘extinction debt’. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these proces...

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Veröffentlicht in:Ecology letters 2021-06, Vol.24 (6), p.1157-1166
Hauptverfasser: Nomoto, Hanna A., Alexander, Jake M., Gureyvitch, Jessica
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an ‘extinction debt’. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these processes to the local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, whereas novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels. Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at warming
ISSN:1461-023X
1461-0248
DOI:10.1111/ele.13727