The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus–negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries

Abstract Background In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1–59 months. Methods Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–negative children aged 1–59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011–2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. Results Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age